Ultimate Fighting Calendar
PFLPFL Washington DC: Jean vs. Rodriguez
Welterweight5 rounds scheduled
Thad Jean
United StatesThad Jean
“Silverback”
12-0-0
STARTS IN··d ··h ··m

Thad Jean vs Shamil Musaev

Shamil Musaev
RussiaShamil Musaev
“Silent Assassin”
20-1-1
Saturday, July 25, 2026
CareFirst Arena, Washington, D.C.

Win probability

Thad Jean 59%41% Shamil Musaev

Based on both fighters' current UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index

Fight DNA

Head to head

UFCalendar's style model · Welterweight roster (258 fighters)

Thad Jean
Knockout Artist
5 edges
Shamil Musaev
Knockout Artist
4 edges
PowerSpeedPrecisionDurabilityEngineWrestlingGround

Radar scaled to this matchup · bars show the gap

Style shape

98Power99
92Speed95
96Precision95
84Durability86
82Engine82
49Wrestling47
96Ground71

Biggest edge Thad Jean, Submissions +52

Attribute by attribute

Thad Jean is on the left of every row, Shamil Musaev on the right.
97Punch power98
99Kick power99
94Punch speed92
90Kick speed97
96Accuracy95
49Takedowns47
98Ground striking99
94Submissions42
74Chin81
93Body strength91
82Cardio82

Attributes are rated 0-100 by UFCalendar's style model.

Tale of the Tape

12-0-0
Record
20-1-1
1859
Power Index rating
1795
8
Win Streak
0
28
Age
32
6'2"
188 cm
Height
5'10"
178 cm
76"
193 cm
Reach
72"
183 cm
-
Stance
-
Welterweight
Weight Class
Welterweight
United States
Nationality
Russia

Striking Profile

2.83
SLpM
5.84
60%
Str. Acc.
80%
3.14
SApM
3.92
41%
Str. Def.
18%

Grappling Profile

0.00
TD Avg.
0.00
-
TD Acc.
0%
25%
TD Def.
50%
5.90
Sub. Avg.
0.00

Recent form (last 5 fights)

Thad Jean · 5-0
  • W
    Ernesto Rodriguez
    PFL Washington DC: Jean vs. Rodriguez · Jul 25, 2026
    TKO · R3 · 2:44 · Welterweight
  • W
    Logan Storley
    Professional Fighters League - 2025 PFL World Tournament 8: Finals · Jul 31, 2025
    Decision · R5 · 5:00 · Welterweight
  • W
    Jason Jackson
    Professional Fighters League - 2025 PFL World Tournament 5: Semifinals · Jun 12, 2025
    Split Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Welterweight
  • W
    Mukhamed Berkhamov
    Professional Fighters League - 2025 PFL World Tournament 1: First Round · Apr 3, 2025
    Knockout · R1 · 4:25 · Welterweight
  • W
    Chris Brown
    Professional Fighters League - PFL 8: 2024 Playoffs · Aug 15, 2024
    Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Welterweight
Shamil Musaev · 4-1
  • L
    Ramazan Kuramagomedov
    PFL Dubai: Nurmagomedov vs. Davis · Feb 7, 2026
    Decision · R5 · 5:00 · Welterweight
  • W
    Magomed Umalatov
    Professional Fighters League - 2024 Season PFL Championships & PFL MENA 2024 Finals · Nov 28, 2024
    TKO · R3 · 1:44 · Welterweight
  • W
    Murad Ramazanov
    Professional Fighters League - PFL 9: 2024 Playoffs · Aug 22, 2024
    Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Welterweight
  • W
    Murad Ramazanov
    Professional Fighters League - PFL 6: 2024 Regular Season · Jun 27, 2024
    TKO · R2 · 1:51 · Welterweight
  • W
    Logan Storley
    Professional Fighters League - PFL 3: 2024 Regular Season · Apr 18, 2024
    Knockout · R2 · 0:27 · Welterweight

Common Opponents

Thad Jean
Shamil Musaev

Career Averages

Based on 5 fights · 4 fights
36.0
Avg sig. strikes
146.0
0.20
Avg takedowns
0.50
3:56
Avg control time
3:04
36
Career high strikes
146
1
Career high TDs
2

Strike Distribution

Thad Jean
Strike target
Shamil Musaev
67%
Head
42%
14%
Body
51%
19%
Leg
7%
Thad Jean
Strike position
Shamil Musaev
23%
Distance
19%
2%
Clinch
40%
74%
Ground
41%

Betting Odds

Thad Jean
+115
47% implied win probability
Open: +118Best: +124
Shamil Musaev
-145
59% implied win probability
Open: -150Best: -135

Average moneyline across 12 sportsbooks.

Line Movement

Thad JeanShamil Musaev
40%50%60%Jul 22, 8 PMJul 23, 5 AMJul 23, 2 PMJul 23, 10 PMJul 22, 8:50 PM UTC · Thad Jean +115 (47%)Jul 22, 10:50 PM UTC · Thad Jean +110 (48%)Jul 23, 12:50 AM UTC · Thad Jean +122 (45%)Jul 23, 2:50 AM UTC · Thad Jean +122 (45%)Jul 23, 4:20 AM UTC · Thad Jean +121 (45%)Jul 23, 6:50 AM UTC · Thad Jean +125 (44%)Jul 23, 8:50 AM UTC · Thad Jean +117 (46%)Jul 23, 10:50 AM UTC · Thad Jean +115 (47%)Jul 23, 12:50 PM UTC · Thad Jean +117 (46%)Jul 23, 2:50 PM UTC · Thad Jean +115 (47%)Jul 23, 4:50 PM UTC · Thad Jean +132 (43%)Jul 23, 6:50 PM UTC · Thad Jean +130 (43%)Jul 23, 8:50 PM UTC · Thad Jean +118 (46%)Jul 23, 10:50 PM UTC · Thad Jean +115 (47%)Jul 22, 8:50 PM UTC · Shamil Musaev -135 (57%)Jul 22, 10:50 PM UTC · Shamil Musaev -130 (57%)Jul 23, 12:50 AM UTC · Shamil Musaev -153 (60%)Jul 23, 2:50 AM UTC · Shamil Musaev -151 (60%)Jul 23, 4:20 AM UTC · Shamil Musaev -150 (60%)Jul 23, 6:50 AM UTC · Shamil Musaev -155 (61%)Jul 23, 8:50 AM UTC · Shamil Musaev -144 (59%)Jul 23, 10:50 AM UTC · Shamil Musaev -144 (59%)Jul 23, 12:50 PM UTC · Shamil Musaev -146 (59%)Jul 23, 2:50 PM UTC · Shamil Musaev -145 (59%)Jul 23, 4:50 PM UTC · Shamil Musaev -166 (62%)Jul 23, 6:50 PM UTC · Shamil Musaev -164 (62%)Jul 23, 8:50 PM UTC · Shamil Musaev -149 (60%)Jul 23, 10:50 PM UTC · Shamil Musaev -145 (59%)+115-145
SportsbookThad JeanShamil Musaev
Bet105+116-143
BetMGM+120-145
BetOnline+115-135
BetUS+105-145
Bookmaker+118-145
Bovada+115-140
Cloudbet+112-143
DraftKings+124-148
FanDuel+122-156
Pinnacle+116-143
ProphetX+111-148
Stake+107-149

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io