UFC Fight Night 289 results: Rosas Jr. stops Barcelos in round 5
UFC Fight Night 289 results: Raul Rosas Jr. stopped Raoni Barcelos in round 5, five underdogs won, and all three decisions went to the fighter who landed less.
That was a good card with a very strange box score. UFC Fight Night 289 at the Meta Apex gave us five underdog winners, a disqualification, a 57-second submission from a man who had fought eleven days earlier, and three decisions that all went to the fighter who landed fewer significant strikes. And on top of it, a main event that the 21-year-old was losing on paper right up until he wasn't.
I went 8 of 12 on winners in my picks on Friday. I got the method right twice. Keep that in mind as I grade everyone else.
Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos: behind on paper, ahead when it mattered
Photo: Chamatkar Sandhu / CC BY 3.0
Raul Rosas Jr. stopped Raoni Barcelos by KO/TKO at 1:38 of the fifth round, with Herb Dean refereeing. It was the first main event and the first five-round fight in the UFC for both men, and it was the Fight of the Night. Rosas Jr. is now 13-1 as a pro and 7-1 in the UFC, with six straight wins since his only loss in April 2023.
Now the part that makes it interesting. Barcelos, who is 39, had the better of most of this fight by the numbers. He landed 127 significant strikes to Rosas Jr.'s 113. He landed 9 of 22 takedowns and held 6:21 of control. Rosas Jr., the wrestler, landed 1 of 3 takedowns, and that one came in the fifth. The fourth round was Barcelos's best: 3:30 of control, five submission attempts, 63 total strikes to Rosas Jr.'s 15.
On Friday I also wrote that Rosas Jr. beats Barcelos by chaining takedowns, the way he went 16 of 18 against Rob Font in March. Instead the chain wrestling came from the 39-year-old. So much for that.
What I did get right, in the picks piece, was the thesis that Rosas Jr. only had to be the fresher man with ten minutes left. He wasn't fresher in the fourth. He was in the fifth, and 98 seconds was enough. That is his first finish since June 2024 and his first KO/TKO since September 2023. Barcelos's five-fight winning streak ends, and he goes to 22-6.
Both men came in ranked, Rosas Jr. at No. 12 at bantamweight and Barcelos at No. 13. The next step for the kid should be Marlon Vera (No. 10) or Payton Talbott (No. 11). Barcelos deserves another ranked name, not a gatekeeper assignment; he was 3:22 from making this go to the cards.
On to the rest.
Three decisions, three winners who landed less
Photo: Profigrappling / CC BY-SA 4.0
Three fights went to the judges. In all three, the winner landed fewer significant strikes and held far more control.
| Bout | Sig. strikes (winner v loser) | Control (winner v loser) | Cards |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perez def. Dumont | 37 v 46 | 3:41 v 0:40 | 29-28, 29-28, 29-28 |
| Vieira def. Bryczek | 24 v 37 | 10:52 v 0:00 | 30-27, 30-27, 30-27 |
| Alateng def. Castaneda | 28 v 55 | 4:02 v 0:25 | 29-28, 29-28, 28-29 |
Rodolfo Vieira over Robert Bryczek needs no defense. Vieira landed only 2 of 15 takedowns and still spent 10:52 of a 15-minute fight in control. Adalaide Byrd, Chris Lee and Sal D'Amato all had it 30-27, and so would anyone. Vieira snaps a two-fight skid.
Ailin Perez over Norma Dumont is closer than the three identical cards suggest. Eric Colón, Michael Bell and D'Amato all gave Perez rounds one and three and Dumont round two. Dumont out-landed her in significant strikes in every round, and in total strikes 102 to 47. Perez won round one on 1:51 of control, and round three on 1:29 of it while going 0 for 3 on takedowns. I picked Perez, and I'll still take the result, but it's her seventh straight UFC win and she is No. 5 beating No. 4. Raquel Pennington at No. 2 is the fight that tells us what Perez actually is.
Then there is Heili Alateng over John Castaneda. Every judge gave Castaneda round one, where he landed 23 significant strikes to 4. Every judge gave Alateng round three, where he landed 3 takedowns and held 3:44 of control. So the fight was round two, and round two looked like this: Castaneda 25 of 53 significant strikes, Alateng 20 of 64, Alateng 0 for 2 on takedowns, 18 seconds of control. Chris Lee gave it to Castaneda. Michael Bell and Sal D'Amato gave it to Alateng.
I cannot square that round with that scoring, and I've tried. Castaneda has now gone four fights without a win, two of the losses split decisions. The judges' track records are one click away, and I'd love for commissions to publish a single line on which criterion decided a close round. Until then, we are all just reading tea leaves off a stat sheet.
Five underdogs, and the market's worst night
The betting market had a rough Saturday. Using the last consensus price before the first bell, four fighters closed at -300 or shorter. Three of them lost:
- Rinya Nakamura at -379, submitted in round two
- John Castaneda at -344, split decision
- Mehemmedeli Osmanli at -304, disqualified
Add Christian Edwards (+150) and Elves Brener (+105), and five underdogs won on a 12-fight card. The only heavy favorite who delivered was Yazmin Jauregui at -945.
Our model went 8 of 12 as well, one better than the market's favorites, because it took Brener at 52.4 percent when the market had Josiah Harrell. It missed Castaneda (71.5 percent), Nakamura (59.7), Osmanli (58.7) and Rodolfo Bellato (51.3). On all four of those misses, the model was less sure of the losing side than the market was: the closing price put Nakamura at 75.9 percent with the bookmakers' margin removed, Castaneda at 74.4, Osmanli at 72.1 and Bellato at 61.6. That's not a victory lap, just the record.
The rest of the card
Luis Hernandez def. Sedriques Dumas, submission, R1 0:57. This bout did not exist a week ago. Mickey Gall vs Sedriques Dumas went on the card Monday, September 21; on Thursday, Luis Hernandez replaced Gall and the fight moved to the main card. Hernandez had submitted his opponent on the Contender Series on September 15. Eleven days later he needed 57 seconds. He is 9-0 and has a Performance of the Night. Sedriques Dumas changed opponents and divisions, middleweight to light heavyweight, in fight week, and is now 3-6 in the UFC with a no contest.
Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu def. Mehemmedeli Osmanli, DQ, R1 2:19. Two UFC debuts, 23 and 22 years old, and it lasted 139 seconds. The official result says disqualification and nothing more, so I'll say nothing more either. Both men landed six significant strikes. Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu closed at +244 and is 1-0 in the UFC. Run it back.
Valesca Machado def. Melissa Amaya, KO/TKO, R2 3:19. Two knockdowns, 50 significant strikes to 22, and the first win in a UFC-run cage for Valesca Machado, whose only previous appearance was a Contender Series loss in 2021. Melissa Amaya takes her first loss as a pro.
Brady Hiestand def. Rinya Nakamura, submission, R2 4:07. Brady Hiestand hadn't fought since June 2024, went 0 for 9 on takedowns, got out-landed 29 to 26, and submitted a -379 favorite anyway. Sometimes the stat sheet just doesn't know who is winning.
Christian Edwards def. Rodolfo Bellato, KO/TKO, R3 1:47. One knockdown each, and Edwards landed 59 significant strikes to Bellato's 30. It's his first UFC win after a split-decision loss in May.
Elves Brener def. Josiah Harrell, KO/TKO, R1 4:14. Brener landed 25 of 36 significant strikes and snapped a three-fight losing streak. Harrell is 0-2 in the UFC, both by KO/TKO.
Montel Jackson def. Ricky Simon, KO/TKO, R2 2:39. Montel Jackson dropped Ricky Simon twice. Jackson came in off back-to-back split-decision losses and took the judges out of it.
Yazmin Jauregui def. Vanessa Demopoulos, KO/TKO, R1 1:02. Jauregui's first fight in two years: 34 of 56 significant strikes in 62 seconds and a Performance of the Night. Vanessa Demopoulos has now lost four in a row.
The bonus money and the rest of the night's pay are on the payouts page, so I won't repeat them here.
One last number. Across the three decisions, the losing fighters out-landed the winners 138 to 89 in significant strikes. Round two of Castaneda vs Alateng is the one I'd put in front of a commission. Watch it again and tell me: whose round was it?