Weekend predictions: ONE Samurai 4, OKTAGON 95, BKFC 95, CW 211

Saturday, October 17 has a UFC card in Edmonton at night, and before it, a full day of fights around it. Four other cards start between the middle of the night in New York and the following Sunday morning in Europe: ONE in Tokyo, OKTAGON in Karlovy Vary, Cage Warriors in Rome and BKFC in Newark. Two of them have world titles at the top. One of them has a champion moving up a division to try to take a second belt.

This is the combined preview: what is on each, what the betting market thinks, and where the market has moved this week, because on two of these cards the move is the story.

ONE SAMURAI 4: Haggerty, Nadaka, and a line that flipped

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ONE SAMURAI 4 at Ariake Arena in Tokyo goes first, at 2:30 a.m. ET (3:30 p.m. in Tokyo, 7:30 a.m. in the UK). Jonathan Haggerty (10-3 in ONE) defends the bantamweight kickboxing title against Hiroki Akimoto (9-4) over five rounds.

Haggerty has gone the full five in both fights since Superlek knocked him out in the first round at ONE 168 in September 2024: a decision over Wei Rui at ONE 171 and another over Yuki Yoza for this belt in April. Akimoto has won three straight, but read the method column before getting excited. Two of the three were split decisions, over John Lineker and over Taimu Hisai, with a unanimous win over the same Wei Rui in between. Haggerty is -341, about 72 percent once the bookmakers' margin is stripped out, and has barely moved from -350 at the open. Prediction: Haggerty by decision.

Nadaka, unbeaten in 33 professional Muay Thai fights, defends the atomweight Muay Thai title against Rifdean Masdor (7-1 in ONE), who has won his last five on ONE Friday Fights, two of the last three by first-round knockout. At -682 Nadaka is the biggest favorite on the card. His last two five-round fights both went the distance. Prediction: Nadaka by decision.

The move to know about is lower down. Masaaki Noiri against Mohammad Siasarani opened with Siasarani as a slight favorite at -120. It has flipped: Noiri is now -138. Both men knocked out their opponents in the first round on the same night, at ONE SAMURAI 2 in August. Noiri's last loss was a five-round decision to Superbon in a title unification in November 2025, and before that he stopped Tawanchai in the third. Siasarani (10-2 in ONE) has won three in a row. Prediction: Noiri by decision.

One more drift worth a sentence: Yuki Yoza, who beat Superlek at ONE 173 last November and lost a title decision to Haggerty in April, has gone from +110 to +130 against Nabil Anane, even though Anane has lost his last two. The market is reading something in Anane that his last two results do not show. I am not sure I see it. Prediction: Yoza by decision.

OKTAGON 95: the market has made up its mind

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OKTAGON 95 at Mattoni Arena in Karlovy Vary has its prelims at 6 p.m. CEST (12 p.m. ET) and the main card at 8 p.m. CEST (2 p.m. ET). The main event is No. 2 against No. 3 in OKTAGON's middleweight rankings, Patrik Kincl (30-12) against Dominik Humburger (12-3), and both of them have lost to Kerim Engizek inside the last two years.

Kincl opened at -190 and has been bet to -245, about 66 percent. The former two-time title winner lost back-to-back five-round decisions in title fights to Engizek and Makhmud Muradov, then won a decision over Robert Pukač in December and submitted Hojat Khajevand in the second round in July. Humburger, 30, came over from KSW, stopped his first two OKTAGON opponents in the second round, lost the OKTAGON 77 main event to Engizek on points and then outpointed Zebaztian Kadestam in April. The line has moved one way all week. Prediction: Kincl by decision.

The co-main moved the same direction. Daniel Škvor (11-4), No. 2 at light heavyweight, went from -200 to -239 against No. 6 Tomasz Narkun (21-7). Škvor has finished his last four. Narkun, who won six KSW title fights and beat Mamed Khalidov twice in 2018, has lost three in a row. The market thinks the old champion's run is over, and the evidence agrees. Prediction: Škvor by TKO.

Further down, flyweight No. 2 David Dvořák is a -1055 favorite against No. 5 Aaron Aby, and Timo Feucht has drifted from -260 to -226 against Zdeněk Polívka. Predictions: Dvořák by decision, Feucht by decision.

Cage Warriors 211: Bellandi's comeback, on short notice

Cage Warriors 211 runs at the same time as OKTAGON, from the PalaPellicone in Rome: prelims at 6 p.m. CEST (12 p.m. ET), main card at 8 p.m. CEST (2 p.m. ET). Every fight has an Italian in at least one corner.

Dario Bellandi (9-2) fights for the first time since Paddy McCorry stopped him in the first round at Cage Warriors 200 in February, the first stoppage loss of his career. His opponent changed this week: Brazil's Aldo Pereira (13-11-2) replaces Renato Valente Alves and comes in on a three-fight losing streak. Bellandi is -669. Pereira is the kind of opponent who should be good for Bellandi's confidence, which is presumably the point of the booking. Prediction: Bellandi by TKO.

The better fight is the co-main. Giuseppe Mastrogiacomo (9-1) is -255 against Greece's Alexis Tsarmantidis (7-2), who has won two straight since a submission loss. Mastrogiacomo knocked out Erick Washington in the second round in Rome in April. Prediction: Mastrogiacomo by decision.

BKFC 95: champion against champion, and the price is shrinking

Photo: Lance Cpl. Victor Barrera / Public domain

BKFC 95 at the Prudential Center in Newark closes the day, with prelims at 8 p.m. ET and the main card at 9 p.m. ET (1 a.m. and 2 a.m. Sunday in the UK). Ten bouts, all scheduled for five two-minute rounds.

The main event is bantamweight champion Jamel Herring (2-0 in BKFC) against flyweight champion John Dodson, who is moving up a division to try to hold two belts at once. Herring has won both of his BKFC fights by unanimous decision, the second for this title in May, and arrived with a professional boxing career that included wins over Masayuki Ito and Carl Frampton. Dodson, 4-0-1 in BKFC, twice fought Demetrious Johnson for the UFC flyweight title and is 42. He has not fought since a decision loss in RIZIN in May 2025.

This is the line that has moved most on the weekend. Herring opened at -250 and is now -194, about 62 percent, with Dodson in from +170 to +145. The market has spent the week taking Dodson more seriously, and I understand why: Herring is the better boxer, but he has two bare-knuckle fights and Dodson has five, and the champion has never shared a bare-knuckle ring with anyone as quick as Dodson. Prediction: Herring by decision, closer than the opening line said.

The co-main has a direct line to the headliner: Jimmie Rivera beat Dodson by decision at UFC 228 in 2018, and now meets Brandon Meyer at welterweight as a -717 favorite. Meyer has lost his last two inside the distance. Prediction: Rivera by TKO.

Where the money went

Put the four cards side by side and the week's movement points in two directions. On OKTAGON, the favorites got shorter in both top fights. On BKFC, the favorite drifted. And in Tokyo, one line flipped outright. None of that tells you who wins, but it does tell you where people with money have changed their minds since the lines opened.

Every card has its own pick'em: ONE SAMURAI 4, OKTAGON 95, Cage Warriors 211 and BKFC 95. Results land on each event page as the fights finish, and the whole day is on the calendar.