Ultimate Fighting Calendar
PFLPFL Washington DC: Jean vs. Rodriguez
Welterweight3 rounds scheduled
Ernesto Rodriguez
CubaErnesto Rodriguez
“Starboy”
11-2-0
STARTS IN··d ··h ··m

Ernesto Rodriguez vs Aaron McKenzie

Aaron McKenzie
United StatesAaron McKenzie
12-2-1
Sunday, July 26, 2026
CareFirst Arena, Washington, D.C.

Win probability

Ernesto Rodriguez 56%44% Aaron McKenzie

Based on both fighters' current UFCalendar Power Index ratings. See the full Power Index

Tale of the Tape

11-2-0
Record
12-2-1
1701
Power Index rating
1661
0
Win Streak
0
29
Age
38
5'9"
175 cm
Height
5'11"
180 cm
74"
188 cm
Reach
74"
188 cm
-
Stance
-
Welterweight
Weight Class
Welterweight
Cuba
Nationality
United States

Striking Profile

-
SLpM
-
-
Str. Acc.
-
-
SApM
-
-
Str. Def.
-

Grappling Profile

-
TD Avg.
-
-
TD Acc.
-
-
TD Def.
-
-
Sub. Avg.
-

Recent form (last 5 fights)

Ernesto Rodriguez · 4-1
  • L
    Thad Jean
    PFL Washington DC: Jean vs. Rodriguez · Jul 26, 2026
    TKO · R3 · 2:44 · Welterweight
  • W
    Masayuki Kikuiri
    PFL Pittsburgh: Eblen vs. Battle · Mar 28, 2026
    Decision · R3 · 5:00 · Middleweight
  • W
    Mahmoud Fawzy Sebie
    Tuff-N-Uff 143 · Apr 25, 2025
    TKO · R1 · 3:34 · Welterweight
  • W
    Alexandre Almeida
    Tuff-N-Uff 139 · Oct 11, 2024
    Unanimous Decision · Welterweight
  • W
    Edson Marques
    Tuff-N-Uff 135 · Feb 2, 2024
    TKO · R2 · 1:44 · Welterweight
Aaron McKenzie · 4-1
  • W
    Adam Assenza
    BTC 29: Prometheus · Jun 7, 2025
    TKO · R1 · 2:14 · Lightweight
  • W
    Aaron Mick
    Husky Fat Promotions · Nov 2, 2024
    TKO · R1 · 3:00
  • L
    Austin Hubbard
    The Ultimate Fighter 31 · Feb 23, 2023
    Unanimous Decision · Lightweight
  • W
    Lucas Clay
    LFA 128: McKenzie vs. Clay · Apr 8, 2022
    Split Decision · Lightweight
  • W
    Brandon Phillips
    LFA 104: McKenzie vs. Phillips · Apr 16, 2021
    Unanimous Decision · Lightweight

Career Averages

Based on 2 fights · 0 fights
34.5
Avg sig. strikes
-
5.50
Avg takedowns
-
2:05
Avg control time
-
40
Career high strikes
-
8
Career high TDs
-

Strike Distribution

Ernesto Rodriguez
Strike target
Aaron McKenzie
74%
Head
-
10%
Body
-
16%
Leg
-
Ernesto Rodriguez
Strike position
Aaron McKenzie
10%
Distance
-
12%
Clinch
-
78%
Ground
-

Betting Odds

Ernesto Rodriguez
-637
86% implied win probability
Open: -531Best: -550
Aaron McKenzie
+422
19% implied win probability
Open: +379Best: +550

Average moneyline across 12 sportsbooks.

Line Movement

Ernesto RodriguezAaron McKenzie
20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Jul 22Jul 23Jul 25Jul 26Jul 22, 8:08 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -250 (71%)Jul 22, 8:09 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -250 (71%)Jul 22, 8:09 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -550 (85%)Jul 22, 8:11 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -550 (85%)Jul 22, 8:47 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -538 (84%)Jul 22, 11:37 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -554 (85%)Jul 23, 12:17 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -598 (86%)Jul 23, 12:17 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -598 (86%)Jul 23, 12:58 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -585 (85%)Jul 23, 1:07 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -578 (85%)Jul 23, 1:38 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -573 (85%)Jul 23, 3:54 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -570 (85%)Jul 23, 6:32 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -570 (85%)Jul 23, 6:33 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -572 (85%)Jul 23, 6:33 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -572 (85%)Jul 23, 7:27 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -572 (85%)Jul 23, 7:27 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -575 (85%)Jul 23, 8:26 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -575 (85%)Jul 23, 8:26 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -599 (86%)Jul 23, 11:02 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -598 (86%)Jul 23, 11:02 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -598 (86%)Jul 23, 12:02 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -597 (86%)Jul 23, 1:27 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -598 (86%)Jul 23, 2:05 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -613 (86%)Jul 23, 2:42 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -606 (86%)Jul 23, 2:50 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -605 (86%)Jul 23, 2:50 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -606 (86%)Jul 23, 3:45 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -617 (86%)Jul 23, 4:22 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -620 (86%)Jul 23, 4:22 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -620 (86%)Jul 23, 4:23 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -624 (86%)Jul 23, 4:23 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -624 (86%)Jul 23, 4:24 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -630 (86%)Jul 23, 4:24 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -630 (86%)Jul 23, 4:32 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -630 (86%)Jul 23, 4:43 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -630 (86%)Jul 23, 4:43 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -632 (86%)Jul 23, 4:50 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -631 (86%)Jul 23, 4:50 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -632 (86%)Jul 23, 4:59 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -632 (86%)Jul 23, 4:59 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -636 (86%)Jul 23, 6:50 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -635 (86%)Jul 23, 6:50 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -636 (86%)Jul 23, 7:46 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -636 (86%)Jul 23, 7:46 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -639 (86%)Jul 23, 7:48 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -639 (86%)Jul 23, 7:48 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -644 (87%)Jul 23, 7:49 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -648 (87%)Jul 23, 7:49 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -648 (87%)Jul 23, 8:50 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -650 (87%)Jul 23, 8:50 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -648 (87%)Jul 23, 9:15 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -641 (87%)Jul 23, 9:15 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -641 (87%)Jul 23, 10:50 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -643 (87%)Jul 23, 10:50 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -641 (87%)Jul 23, 11:05 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -637 (86%)Jul 23, 11:05 PM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -637 (86%)Jul 24, 12:50 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -638 (86%)Jul 24, 12:50 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -637 (86%)Jul 24, 2:50 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -638 (86%)Jul 24, 2:50 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -637 (86%)Jul 24, 4:20 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -638 (86%)Jul 26, 4:20 AM UTC · Ernesto Rodriguez -637 (86%)Jul 22, 8:08 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +170 (37%)Jul 22, 8:09 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +300 (25%)Jul 22, 8:09 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +300 (25%)Jul 22, 8:11 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +400 (20%)Jul 22, 8:47 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +380 (21%)Jul 22, 11:37 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +367 (21%)Jul 23, 12:17 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +367 (21%)Jul 23, 12:17 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +372 (21%)Jul 23, 12:58 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +375 (21%)Jul 23, 1:07 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +380 (21%)Jul 23, 1:38 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +381 (21%)Jul 23, 3:54 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +384 (21%)Jul 23, 6:32 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +385 (21%)Jul 23, 6:33 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +385 (21%)Jul 23, 6:33 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +387 (21%)Jul 23, 7:27 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +388 (20%)Jul 23, 7:27 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +388 (20%)Jul 23, 8:26 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +395 (20%)Jul 23, 8:26 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +395 (20%)Jul 23, 11:02 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +395 (20%)Jul 23, 11:02 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +396 (20%)Jul 23, 12:02 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +395 (20%)Jul 23, 1:27 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +395 (20%)Jul 23, 2:05 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +399 (20%)Jul 23, 2:42 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +400 (20%)Jul 23, 2:50 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +398 (20%)Jul 23, 2:50 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +400 (20%)Jul 23, 3:45 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +409 (20%)Jul 23, 4:22 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +409 (20%)Jul 23, 4:22 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +411 (20%)Jul 23, 4:23 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +411 (20%)Jul 23, 4:23 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +413 (19%)Jul 23, 4:24 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +413 (19%)Jul 23, 4:24 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +415 (19%)Jul 23, 4:32 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +412 (20%)Jul 23, 4:43 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +413 (19%)Jul 23, 4:43 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +413 (19%)Jul 23, 4:50 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +411 (20%)Jul 23, 4:50 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +413 (19%)Jul 23, 4:59 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +415 (19%)Jul 23, 4:59 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +415 (19%)Jul 23, 6:50 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +413 (19%)Jul 23, 6:50 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +415 (19%)Jul 23, 7:46 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +423 (19%)Jul 23, 7:46 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +423 (19%)Jul 23, 7:48 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +426 (19%)Jul 23, 7:48 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +426 (19%)Jul 23, 7:49 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +426 (19%)Jul 23, 7:49 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +428 (19%)Jul 23, 8:50 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +427 (19%)Jul 23, 8:50 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +428 (19%)Jul 23, 9:15 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +428 (19%)Jul 23, 9:15 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +424 (19%)Jul 23, 10:50 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +423 (19%)Jul 23, 10:50 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +424 (19%)Jul 23, 11:05 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +424 (19%)Jul 23, 11:05 PM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +422 (19%)Jul 24, 12:50 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +421 (19%)Jul 24, 12:50 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +422 (19%)Jul 24, 2:50 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +421 (19%)Jul 24, 2:50 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +422 (19%)Jul 24, 4:20 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +421 (19%)Jul 26, 4:20 AM UTC · Aaron McKenzie +422 (19%)-637+422
SportsbookErnesto RodriguezAaron McKenzie
Bet105-608+417
BetMGM-550+400
BetOnline-800+550
BetUS-769+434
Bookmaker-650+445
Bovada-600+425
Cloudbet-714+405
DraftKings-625+455
FanDuel-590+390
Pinnacle-608+417
ProphetX-630+380
Stake-588+340

Odds are for information only. · Odds data: fightodds.io