UFC Sacramento odds: the lines that moved all week
UFC Sacramento odds movement: Hernandez vs Rodrigues drifting apart, the Shanelle Dyer steam, and Cyborg's shortening price at PFL Tampa, book by book.
Fight week is when odds stop being a guess and start being a record of what people actually believe. With UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues two days out, the 25-book consensus lines we track on the event page have moved on nearly every fight since they opened. Here is where the market has changed its mind, reported as movement, not advice.
The headline number belongs to a strawweight prelim. Shanelle Dyer has been steamed from -650 at the open to -850 against Elise Reed, the largest shift on the card. In implied-probability terms the market moved Dyer from roughly 87 percent to nearly 90, which for a fighter with eight professional fights is a serious statement of consensus.
The main event has drifted the same direction all week, just more politely. Anthony Hernandez opened -168 and sits at -180; Gregory Rodrigues has lengthened from +132 to +154. Whatever doubt Sean Strickland's February knockout planted about Hernandez, the money that has arrived since open is on the grinder, not the puncher.
The full picture on the moves that matter:
| Fight | Open | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Hernandez vs Rodrigues | -168 / +132 | -180 / +154 |
| Dolidze vs de Ridder | +267 / -350 | +300 / -400 |
| Mederos vs Jones | +210 / -270 | +232 / -282 |
| Judice vs Chaves | -480 / +340 | -550 / +425 |
| Chatman vs Wint | +634 / -1000 | +660 / -1050 |
| Nzechukwu vs Gaziev | +105 / -130 | +116 / -139 |
| Padilla vs Haqparast | -110 / -118 | +100 / -120 |
| Dyer vs Reed | -650 / +426 | -850 / +550 |
A few of these tell small stories. Reinier de Ridder, on a two-fight losing streak, has nonetheless shortened from -350 to -400 over Roman Dolidze; the market apparently blames the middleweights he lost to, not the man himself, for the skid. Carli Judice went from -480 to -550 over the unbeaten Jeisla Chaves, which is the market repeating its usual opinion of records built outside the UFC. And the only fight that flipped: Chris Padilla opened as a slight favorite over Nasrat Haqparast and now sits at +100 to Haqparast's -120, a quiet week-long drift toward the more experienced man (Haqparast is 18-6 as a professional).
Across town, or rather across the country, PFL Tampa has its own movement. Cris Cyborg has shortened from -295 to -350 over Ketlen Vieira, implied 75 percent to 78, the market inching further from the idea that a 41-year-old on an 8-0 run is due. The sharpest PFL move is further down: Daniel Marcos opened -152 over Magomed Magomedov and the pair now sits at a near coin flip, Marcos -136 to Magomedov -102. Someone with conviction likes the Russian's 22-5 against Marcos's 18-1, and the open did not.
One caveat on the Tampa numbers: our consensus there is built on the two to five books quoting each fight, versus a full 25 for Sacramento, so single-book conviction moves that line faster.
Both cards run Saturday, August 22: Sacramento's prelims at 5 PM ET with the main card at 8, Tampa in one continuous show from 5:30 PM ET. Live odds keep updating on both event pages until the walkouts, and the movement charts there show every book's path, not just the medians quoted here.