UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song

Kai Asakura Aoriqileng karşısında

Aoriqileng arrives on 91 days' rest off a second-round knockout loss to Cody Haddon, sits 4-5 in the UFC, and carries a late-round dominance figure of -14.8, the worst on this card, so the model reads the fight as one Asakura mainly has to survive early. The mileage split is the clearest number in it: Aoriqileng has absorbed 456 significant strikes across his career to Asakura's 62, and Asakura holds 10 quality wins to his 4. The honest caution is that both of Asakura's UFC losses came by submission, to Alexandre Pantoja and Tim Elliott, and he defends only 50 percent of takedowns, but Aoriqileng attempts 1.2 takedowns per 15 minutes at 46.7 percent and is not the man built to punish it.

• Rakip seviyesi (Power Index)
  1782.0UFCalendar Power Index puanı1647.0

  69%Power Index beklentisi31%
• Tüm kariyer
  79%Kariyer galibiyet oranı67%

  28.0Kariyer maçları39.0

  22.0Kariyer galibiyetleri26.0
• UFC öncesi geçmiş
  1.0UFC öncesi yenilgiler8.0

  8.0UFC öncesi galibiyetler22.0

  89%UFC öncesi galibiyet oranı73%
• Bitirme gücü
  9.0KO galibiyetleri2.0

  0.0Yere düşme0.7

  0.8Yere gönderme0.5
• Ara ve duruş
  91.0Ara süresi91.0

  0.0Solak eşleşmesi0.0

  0.0Değişken duruş0.0

André Lima Namsrai Batbayar karşısında

Lima is 5-1 in the UFC with kick power and kick speed in the 98th and 100th percentiles of the flyweight division and striking accuracy at the 96th, and he defends 75.9 percent of takedowns while landing 3.5 minutes of control per 15. The warning belongs to the other corner and the model's own drivers say so out loud: its two heaviest factors here are simply that Lima has 81 minutes of tracked UFC time and five quality wins while Namsrai Batbayar has zero of each. Batbayar won the 2026 Road to UFC flyweight tournament and is 10-1 with finishes in his last three, so this is a live debutant, and Lima himself dropped his most recent outing on the cards to Kevin Borjas, which is why the price is 1.372 and not shorter.

• Rakip seviyesi (Power Index)
  1750.0UFCalendar Power Index puanı1729.0

  53%Power Index beklentisi47%
• Tüm kariyer
  92%Kariyer galibiyet oranı91%

  11.0Kariyer galibiyetleri10.0

  12.0Kariyer maçları11.0
• UFC karnesi
  6.0UFC deneyimi0.0

  5.0UFC galibiyetleri0.0

  0.0Galibiyet serisi0.0
• UFC öncesi geçmiş
  100%UFC öncesi galibiyet oranı91%

  0.0UFC öncesi yenilgiler1.0

  6.0UFC öncesi galibiyetler10.0
• Boy ve kulaç
  67.0Boy64.0

  67.0Kulaç68.0

Sean Woodson Jack Jenkins karşısında

Woodson is 8-2 in the UFC carrying a 78-inch reach at featherweight, 99th-percentile accuracy and 92nd-percentile cardio, and he defends 84.6 percent of takedowns, which matters because Jenkins wants exactly that route at 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes on 60 percent accuracy with 4.39 minutes of control. The model does not pretend this is comfortable: its top driver is the scorecard curve, and Jenkins has taken round one on the judges' cards in 100 percent of his fights against Woodson's 60 percent, so the early frames belong to the Australian. We state the rest of the caveat plainly, that Woodson is 34, has not fought in 504 days, and Dan Ige stopped him last time out. Model and market land in the same place at 58 percent, and this is the longest price on the ticket.

• Boy ve kulaç
  78.0Kulaç68.0

  74.0Boy67.0
• Rakip seviyesi (Power Index)
  1746.0UFCalendar Power Index puanı1699.0

  57%Power Index beklentisi43%
• Yaş ve zirve
  34.2Yaş32.8

  zirveden 1.2 yıl sonrazirve geçiyor
• UFC öncesi geçmiş
  100%UFC öncesi galibiyet oranı82%

  0.0UFC öncesi yenilgiler2.0

  5.0UFC öncesi galibiyetler9.0
• Ara ve duruş
  0.0Değişken duruş1.0

  504.0Ara süresi336.0

  0.0Solak eşleşmesi0.0

Xiao Long Francesco Nuzzi karşısında

The case is Nuzzi's inactivity rather than Xiao Long's form. Nuzzi has not had a completed fight in 505 days, his most recent bout was a no contest at Cage Warriors 204, and his rating trend across three fights is -196, the steepest decline of anyone on this card. The model's leading factor is starker still: Xiao Long has 71.5 minutes of tracked cage time and Nuzzi has none. Xiao Long is only 1-4 in the UFC, but every one of those losses went to the scorecards and he lands 5.04 significant strikes a minute, and with his takedown percentile at 10 and Nuzzi a kickboxing black belt this stays standing and gets decided on volume. It is the model's best positive edge among the favorites, 65 percent against a market price of 61.

• Rakip seviyesi (Power Index)
  59%Power Index beklentisi41%

  1657.0UFCalendar Power Index puanı1597.0

  -Power Index eğilimi (son 3)-196.0
• UFC öncesi geçmiş
  7.0UFC öncesi yenilgiler1.0

  22.0UFC öncesi galibiyetler9.0

  76%UFC öncesi galibiyet oranı90%
• Tüm kariyer
  68%Kariyer galibiyet oranı83%

  23.0Kariyer galibiyetleri10.0

  34.0Kariyer maçları12.0
• Yaş ve zirve
  28.4Yaş30.0

  zirvesindezirve geçiyor
• UFC karnesi
  20%UFC galibiyet oranı50%

  5.0UFC deneyimi2.0

  0.0Galibiyet serisi0.0

Lawrence Lui Hector Santiago karşısında

Lui is City Kickboxing's Road to UFC season 4 bantamweight winner and the number that carries this leg is 7.0 takedowns per 15 minutes at 46.7 percent accuracy with 4.98 minutes of control from his UFC debut. Hector Santiago is a WAKO Pro world champion kickboxer and a Muay Thai black prajied debuting at 33 with no wrestling anywhere on his ledger, which is the thin-data warning on this fight and also why the matchup reads clean: a grappler who wants the floor against a striker with no shown answer once he gets there. The model's own top two factors are the plainest ones available, three years of age and four inches of reach, both to Lui. The line has barely moved since it opened, from -300 to -283, and model and market agree at 72 and 71 percent.

• Rakip seviyesi (Power Index)(küçük örneklem, fark törpülendi)
  1678.0UFCalendar Power Index puanı1656.0

  53%Power Index beklentisi47%
• Yaş ve zirve
  30.1Yaş33.4

  zirve geçiyorzirveden 0.4 yıl sonra
• Tüm kariyer(küçük örneklem, fark törpülendi)
  89%Kariyer galibiyet oranı86%

  8.0Kariyer galibiyetleri6.0

  1876.0Kariyer süresi770.0
• Boy ve kulaç
  72.0Kulaç68.0

  67.0Boy65.0
• UFC karnesi(küçük örneklem, fark törpülendi)
  1.0Galibiyet serisi0.0

  1.0UFC deneyimi0.0

  1.0UFC galibiyetleri0.0

Ding Meng Cameron Nelson karşısında

This is the weakest leg on the ticket and it should be read that way. Ding Meng is 1-4 in the UFC with zero quality wins and the lowest average opponent rating on the card at 1600, coming off a split-decision loss, and the model's 57 percent for him rests almost entirely on experience, 26 career fights against Cameron Nelson's 8. Two of its other leading factors point the other way: Nelson is four years younger and owns an 88 percent career win rate to Ding Meng's 69. Nelson is a debutant, 7-1 with a five-fight FLA win streak, so the thin-data flag is doing real work here. What corroborates the side is the money rather than the model, since this opened with Nelson the slight favorite at -118 and now sits at -144 on Ding Meng.

• Rakip seviyesi (Power Index)
  58%Power Index beklentisi42%

  1715.0UFCalendar Power Index puanı1661.0
• Yaş ve zirve
  31.9Yaş28.1

  zirve geçiyorzirvesinde
• UFC öncesi geçmiş
  4.0UFC öncesi yenilgiler1.0

  17.0UFC öncesi galibiyetler7.0

  81%UFC öncesi galibiyet oranı88%
• UFC karnesi
  5.0UFC deneyimi0.0

  0.0Galibiyet serisi0.0

  1.0UFC galibiyetleri0.0
• Boy ve kulaç
  74.0Boy71.0

  73.0Kulaç72.0