UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song

Kai Asakura vs Aoriqileng

Aoriqileng arrives on 91 days' rest off a second-round knockout loss to Cody Haddon, sits 4-5 in the UFC, and carries a late-round dominance figure of -14.8, the worst on this card, so the model reads the fight as one Asakura mainly has to survive early. The mileage split is the clearest number in it: Aoriqileng has absorbed 456 significant strikes across his career to Asakura's 62, and Asakura holds 10 quality wins to his 4. The honest caution is that both of Asakura's UFC losses came by submission, to Alexandre Pantoja and Tim Elliott, and he defends only 50 percent of takedowns, but Aoriqileng attempts 1.2 takedowns per 15 minutes at 46.7 percent and is not the man built to punish it.

• 상대 수준 (Power Index)
  1782.0UFCalendar Power Index 레이팅1647.0

  69%Power Index 기대 승률31%
• 커리어 전체
  79%커리어 승률67%

  28.0커리어 경기 수39.0

  22.0커리어 승수26.0
• UFC 이전 경력
  1.0UFC 이전 패8.0

  8.0UFC 이전 승22.0

  89%UFC 이전 승률73%
• 피니시 능력
  9.0KO 승2.0

  0.0다운 허용0.7

  0.8다운 획득0.5
• 공백기와 스탠스
  91.0공백기91.0

  0.0사우스포 매치업0.0

  0.0스위치 스탠스0.0

André Lima vs Namsrai Batbayar

Lima is 5-1 in the UFC with kick power and kick speed in the 98th and 100th percentiles of the flyweight division and striking accuracy at the 96th, and he defends 75.9 percent of takedowns while landing 3.5 minutes of control per 15. The warning belongs to the other corner and the model's own drivers say so out loud: its two heaviest factors here are simply that Lima has 81 minutes of tracked UFC time and five quality wins while Namsrai Batbayar has zero of each. Batbayar won the 2026 Road to UFC flyweight tournament and is 10-1 with finishes in his last three, so this is a live debutant, and Lima himself dropped his most recent outing on the cards to Kevin Borjas, which is why the price is 1.372 and not shorter.

• 상대 수준 (Power Index)
  1750.0UFCalendar Power Index 레이팅1729.0

  53%Power Index 기대 승률47%
• 커리어 전체
  92%커리어 승률91%

  11.0커리어 승수10.0

  12.0커리어 경기 수11.0
• UFC 전적
  6.0UFC 경험0.0

  5.0UFC 승수0.0

  0.0연승0.0
• UFC 이전 경력
  100%UFC 이전 승률91%

  0.0UFC 이전 패1.0

  6.0UFC 이전 승10.0
• 체격과 리치
  67.0신장64.0

  67.0리치68.0

Sean Woodson vs Jack Jenkins

Woodson is 8-2 in the UFC carrying a 78-inch reach at featherweight, 99th-percentile accuracy and 92nd-percentile cardio, and he defends 84.6 percent of takedowns, which matters because Jenkins wants exactly that route at 1.98 takedowns per 15 minutes on 60 percent accuracy with 4.39 minutes of control. The model does not pretend this is comfortable: its top driver is the scorecard curve, and Jenkins has taken round one on the judges' cards in 100 percent of his fights against Woodson's 60 percent, so the early frames belong to the Australian. We state the rest of the caveat plainly, that Woodson is 34, has not fought in 504 days, and Dan Ige stopped him last time out. Model and market land in the same place at 58 percent, and this is the longest price on the ticket.

• 체격과 리치
  78.0리치68.0

  74.0신장67.0
• 상대 수준 (Power Index)
  1746.0UFCalendar Power Index 레이팅1699.0

  57%Power Index 기대 승률43%
• 나이와 전성기
  34.2나이32.8

  전성기 지나 1.2년전성기 후반
• UFC 이전 경력
  100%UFC 이전 승률82%

  0.0UFC 이전 패2.0

  5.0UFC 이전 승9.0
• 공백기와 스탠스
  0.0스위치 스탠스1.0

  504.0공백기336.0

  0.0사우스포 매치업0.0

Xiao Long vs Francesco Nuzzi

The case is Nuzzi's inactivity rather than Xiao Long's form. Nuzzi has not had a completed fight in 505 days, his most recent bout was a no contest at Cage Warriors 204, and his rating trend across three fights is -196, the steepest decline of anyone on this card. The model's leading factor is starker still: Xiao Long has 71.5 minutes of tracked cage time and Nuzzi has none. Xiao Long is only 1-4 in the UFC, but every one of those losses went to the scorecards and he lands 5.04 significant strikes a minute, and with his takedown percentile at 10 and Nuzzi a kickboxing black belt this stays standing and gets decided on volume. It is the model's best positive edge among the favorites, 65 percent against a market price of 61.

• 상대 수준 (Power Index)
  59%Power Index 기대 승률41%

  1657.0UFCalendar Power Index 레이팅1597.0

  -Power Index 추세(최근 3경기)-196.0
• UFC 이전 경력
  7.0UFC 이전 패1.0

  22.0UFC 이전 승9.0

  76%UFC 이전 승률90%
• 커리어 전체
  68%커리어 승률83%

  23.0커리어 승수10.0

  34.0커리어 경기 수12.0
• 나이와 전성기
  28.4나이30.0

  전성기전성기 후반
• UFC 전적
  20%UFC 승률50%

  5.0UFC 경험2.0

  0.0연승0.0

Lawrence Lui vs Hector Santiago

Lui is City Kickboxing's Road to UFC season 4 bantamweight winner and the number that carries this leg is 7.0 takedowns per 15 minutes at 46.7 percent accuracy with 4.98 minutes of control from his UFC debut. Hector Santiago is a WAKO Pro world champion kickboxer and a Muay Thai black prajied debuting at 33 with no wrestling anywhere on his ledger, which is the thin-data warning on this fight and also why the matchup reads clean: a grappler who wants the floor against a striker with no shown answer once he gets there. The model's own top two factors are the plainest ones available, three years of age and four inches of reach, both to Lui. The line has barely moved since it opened, from -300 to -283, and model and market agree at 72 and 71 percent.

• 상대 수준 (Power Index)(표본 부족, 격차 할인됨)
  1678.0UFCalendar Power Index 레이팅1656.0

  53%Power Index 기대 승률47%
• 나이와 전성기
  30.1나이33.4

  전성기 후반전성기 지나 0.4년
• 커리어 전체(표본 부족, 격차 할인됨)
  89%커리어 승률86%

  8.0커리어 승수6.0

  1876.0커리어 기간770.0
• 체격과 리치
  72.0리치68.0

  67.0신장65.0
• UFC 전적(표본 부족, 격차 할인됨)
  1.0연승0.0

  1.0UFC 경험0.0

  1.0UFC 승수0.0

Ding Meng vs Cameron Nelson

This is the weakest leg on the ticket and it should be read that way. Ding Meng is 1-4 in the UFC with zero quality wins and the lowest average opponent rating on the card at 1600, coming off a split-decision loss, and the model's 57 percent for him rests almost entirely on experience, 26 career fights against Cameron Nelson's 8. Two of its other leading factors point the other way: Nelson is four years younger and owns an 88 percent career win rate to Ding Meng's 69. Nelson is a debutant, 7-1 with a five-fight FLA win streak, so the thin-data flag is doing real work here. What corroborates the side is the money rather than the model, since this opened with Nelson the slight favorite at -118 and now sits at -144 on Ding Meng.

• 상대 수준 (Power Index)
  58%Power Index 기대 승률42%

  1715.0UFCalendar Power Index 레이팅1661.0
• 나이와 전성기
  31.9나이28.1

  전성기 후반전성기
• UFC 이전 경력
  4.0UFC 이전 패1.0

  17.0UFC 이전 승7.0

  81%UFC 이전 승률88%
• UFC 전적
  5.0UFC 경험0.0

  0.0연승0.0

  1.0UFC 승수0.0
• 체격과 리치
  74.0신장71.0

  73.0리치72.0