UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues · 결과

Anthony Hernandez vs Gregory Rodrigues

Hernandez is the ranked man here, number 6 to Rodrigues at number 11, and his path is legible: 5.9 takedowns per 15 minutes against a striker who lands 1.9, with submissions of Roman Kopylov and Roman Dolidze already on the ledger. The danger is early and the model sees it, since Rodrigues owns 8 knockout wins to Hernandez's 2 and has taken the opening round on the scorecards in 75% of his fights, so this leg is really a read that Hernandez survives the first five minutes and turns it into grappling. The books moved the line from -141 to -210 in the two weeks since it opened and the model lands in the same place at 65%.

Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Shamil Gaziev

This is the model's largest gap with the market on a fight where neither man is a mystery: 58% for Nzechukwu against a market that has him a small underdog at +106. Gaziev is 36, has lost two straight by knockout, and absorbs 5.16 significant strikes a minute while landing 3.01, which is what a heavyweight looks like on the way down. Nzechukwu carries five inches of reach and 81.5% takedown defense against a man who completes 33% of his own takedowns, and the caveat we state plainly is that Nzechukwu has not had his own hand raised since December 2024.

Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast

Padilla is 4-0 in the UFC on a four-fight win streak, and the number that matters is mileage: he has absorbed 148 significant strikes across his UFC career to Haqparast's 1,056. Haqparast is the bigger name with 15 UFC fights, but he is coming off a first-round knockout loss to Quillan Salkilld, has not fought in ten months, and takes 6.0 significant strikes a minute. The model calls it 57% against a market that says coin flip, which makes it the cheapest real disagreement on the card at -115.

Gauge Young vs Stan Dorsainvil

Young is 3-1 in the UFC at 26 on a three-fight win streak that includes a split decision over Thiago Moises and a unanimous decision over Maheshate. Stan Dorsainvil is a debutant we hold no data on at all, and that is precisely what the thin-data warning on this leg means: the model's 77% is inflated by an empty opponent file, so read it as a number nearer the market's 60% than ours. We still take Young at -165 on his own record, and that is exactly why he sits on the favorites ticket rather than anywhere else.

Serghei Spivac vs Vitor Petrino

Spivac is the ranked heavyweight in this pairing at number 6 and the schedules are not close: his recent opposition reads Ciryl Gane, Jailton Almeida, Waldo Cortes Acosta, Marcin Tybura and Ante Delija, while Petrino has been matched with Steven Asplund, Thomas Petersen and Austen Lane. Petrino is younger, on a three-fight run, and genuinely improving, but he was knocked out by Dustin Jacoby in his last defeat and this is a clear step up in class. The model reads it 45/55 against a market at 43/57, so on a near coin flip the plus money is on the side with the harder resume.

Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan Douglas

The market makes Lerryan Douglas a 76% favorite on the strength of one UFC fight, a first-round knockout of Julian Erosa, with five straight stoppages behind it. Our model has 3.5 minutes of tracked cage time on Douglas against 86.5 for Emmers, who owns 9 UFC fights, has won his last two, defends 80% of takedowns and lands 4.88 significant strikes a minute, so it prices the fight 42/58 instead of 24/76. That is the thin-data warning in the open, and the counterweight is real: Emmers is 37 and that age gap is the single biggest factor working against him in the model.