How accurate are UFCal's MMA fight predictions?
How the model's pre-fight probabilities actually fared, graded against every decided fight in the database. Nothing is cherry-picked: these are the same numbers shown on bout pages before each fight, recomputed live.
UFCal's Elo model has correctly picked the winner in 60.1% of the 17582 MMA fights graded so far, with a Brier score of 0.270. It is well calibrated: when the model gives a fighter a 50%–55% chance, that favorite wins 59.5% of the time.
- Favorite accuracy
- 60.1%
- Fights graded
- 17582
- Brier score
- 0.270
Calibration
When the model says 70%, does the favorite actually win about 70% of the time? Predicted vs. observed, by confidence bucket.
| Model says | Avg predicted | Favorite won | Fights |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50%–55% | 51.9% | 59.5% | 9379 |
| 55%–60% | 57.1% | 60.1% | 5538 |
| 60%–65% | 62.2% | 64.8% | 2957 |
| 65%–70% | 67.2% | 71.6% | 1397 |
| 70%–75% | 72.1% | 77.9% | 535 |
| 75%–80% | 76.8% | 77.1% | 131 |
| 80%–100% | 81.1% | 85.7% | 21 |
Accuracy by year
| Year | Fights | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 698 | 61.6% |
| 2025 | 1689 | 58.4% |
| 2024 | 1676 | 60.8% |
| 2023 | 1669 | 62.9% |
| 2022 | 1392 | 61.4% |
| 2021 | 1345 | 63.1% |
| 2020 | 975 | 60.6% |
| 2019 | 1375 | 57.5% |
| 2018 | 1122 | 58.6% |
| 2017 | 961 | 58.5% |
| 2016 | 870 | 59.8% |
| 2015 | 684 | 61.5% |
| 2014 | 624 | 59.1% |
| 2013 | 440 | 54.8% |
| 2012 | 354 | 57.3% |
| 2011 | 290 | 53.4% |
| 2010 | 251 | 63.3% |
| 2009 | 212 | 54.2% |
| 2008 | 214 | 57% |
| 2007 | 180 | 62.8% |
| 2006 | 150 | 65.3% |
| 2005 | 70 | 70% |
| 2004 | 43 | 58.1% |
| 2003 | 35 | 48.6% |
| 2002 | 46 | 63% |
| 2001 | 36 | 58.3% |
| 2000 | 32 | 62.5% |
| 1999 | 35 | 51.4% |
| 1998 | 15 | 60% |
| 1997 | 26 | 61.5% |
| 1996 | 30 | 66.7% |
| 1995 | 26 | 69.2% |
| 1994 | 17 | 76.5% |
Every number on this page is recomputed live from the stored pre-fight probabilities — the same ones printed on bout pages before each fight happens. Draws are excluded (no verdict to grade) and dead-even 50/50 prices grade no pick. Ratings and probabilities span every organization we track, back to 1993.